United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on September 1, 2015 was 68.4 million head, up four per cent from September 1, 2014, and up two per cent from June 1, 2015. This is the highest inventory of all hogs and pigs since quarterly United States estimates began in 1988.
Breeding inventory, at 5.99 million head, is up one per cent from last year, and up one per cent from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 62.4 million head, up four per cent from last year, and up two per cent from last quarter. This is the highest market hog inventory since quarterly United States estimates began in 1988.
The June-August 2015 pig crop, at 30.6 million head, is up one per cent from 2014. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.94 million head, down two per cent from 2014. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50 per cent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was a record high 10.39 for the June-August period, compared to 10.16 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 8.00 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 10.40 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.
Arlan Suderman, a Wichita, KS based analyst at brokerage Water Street Solutions says the USDA quarterly hogs and pigs report is pretty neutral for the most part; a few more hogs than anticipated in some weight ranges, but nothing really significant. The numbers may be a bit bearish for December, but are really pretty neutral otherwise and should not prove to be a significant disruption to current market behavior.
“I actually think that the corn price action the next 30 to 60 days could have a bigger impact, supporting the deferred contracts if feed prices rise as we anticipate, although much of that may be priced in already,” Suderman said.
Product movement slowed to 1,623 loads over the past week, down from 1,895 loads the previous week, but up from 1,568 loads in the same week last year. The composite pork product price firmed to $83.94 per cwt, up $1.52 on the day and up $1.04 on the week, but down dramatically from $118.63 per cwt in the same week last year.
“We’ve seen a nice rally with the charts looking good, but all of this is contingent on sustaining demand, which becomes more challenging beyond mid-October, particularly as carcass weights rise seasonally,” he said. “However, the corn market could hold a bigger impact over the next several months if my yield estimates verify, raising feed costs sufficiently to stifle herd expansion.”
The nearly 68.4 million inventory – as well as the average pigs per liter of 10.39 – reported in the third quarter were new record highs, says Steve Meyer, vice president of pork analysis for Express Markets Inc. Analytics, Fort Wayne, Ind., in a teleconference hosted by the National Pork Board in the United States.
“The productivity gains cited in the report, particularly the record pigs per liter, signaled ‘really a victory over PEDv, in a very strong recovery,” says Dr. Chris Hurt, professor of agriculture economics at Purdue University, West Lafayette, Ind.  •
— By Harry Siemens