Frozen digits and dismal markets did little to deter the distinct aura of optimism among the 739 people who attended Banff Pork Seminar early in January.
Delegates, sponsors, exhibitors, speakers, organizers, staff and volunteers started arriving on Tuesday, January 9, with the mercury dropping below -30C and continuing to fall. In the mid-western United States, a major storm had descended, affecting travel plans for speakers including Joe Kerns, who appeared via streaming media because the airport had been shut down.
And yet there was a powerfully upbeat mood among the crowd in attendance, which seemed larger than the 2023 conference even though there were fewer registrants. Co-chair Ruurd Zijlstra reported in his closing comments that the number of attendees this year was down from a record-breaking crowd of 783 in 2023, the first fully in-person seminar since the 2020 pandemic.
“Of course, since our last meeting when we were in this room in 2023, . . . it’s a very rough time,” said Zijlstra, a research professor in the swine program at the University of Alberta.
“To use (speaker Jason Shaw’s) wording, some of us certainly felt that we have been in the basement now for a while. Despite all that, we as an advisory committee are incredibly encouraged by the attendance and how many people came to 2024 at Banff Pork Seminar basically to rejuvenate ourselves. And so, on behalf of the committee, thanks for attending,” he said.
If there is reason for optimism, it could be found within the presentation by Iowa-based Kerns, founder and CEO of Partners for Production Agriculture .
Kerns offered his observations of global trends affecting profitability among North American swine producers, including geo-political impacts, weather, disease and economics.
Borrowing a phrase from a Canadian icon, the late Gordon Lightfoot, Kerns said there is no “carefree highway” for hog producers.
“We still have some obstacles that we’re going to face on our path to profitability,” he said.
“If we realize that just where we sit right now, 2023 will be the worst year ever in the history of pork production. 2024 will make it the worst two years. That’s not a great start.”
Revenue is “inexorably” tied to production levels, said Kerns. Therefore, a significant reduction in the number of sows throughout Canada and the US – by 750,000 head for example – would improve revenue for producers. However, any organized attempt to define and accomplish that goal could bear a heavy burden.
“You cannot have production constraints for the sole purpose of increasing revenue. That’s illegal in both countries.”
Any improvement in revenue has been chopped up by increases across the board in production costs, said Kerns. While feed is a significant player in those increases, costs of labour, materials fuel and other inputs have also ramped up.
The good news, which is part of Kerns’s belief that profitability will return later in the year, is that soy production in South America is also ramping up, including Argentina which is now recovering from prolonged drought.
At the same time, hog export numbers are dropping off within the European Union, creating new opportunities for Canada and the United States.
“Help’s on the way, guys,” said Kerns, who offered three factors that he believes will produce a return to profitability during the second half of 2024. Those factors are a reduction in the costs of production, continued compression in EU exports and a pivot in domestic prices for pork.
Dalhousie University food scientist Sylvan Charlebois opened the second day of seminars with his insight concerning domestic trends and food sustainability.
Canadian consumers have raised complaints about food prices in the last three years. They’re asking what is going on and whether food prices are going up because of corporate greed. The question for industry is how much consumers value food in their lives and how much they are willing to invest for safe, healthy food, said Charlebois
“For example, if you look at all industrialized countries right now, in Canada we spend about 10.2 per cent of our entire budget on food. That is the sixth lowest percentage in the world, and that metric to me is very important. Why? Because it really represents how valuable food is, how important food is in someone’s financial life.”
He referred to an annual food pricing report published early in December, showing that food prices in 2024 should increase by 2.5 to 4.5 per cent, compared with 5.9 per cent in 2023. Charlebois expressed that while high inflation is a hardship, some inflation is necessary for an economy to thrive.
“This is the one thing that I try to do, to convey to the public that we need inflation. So we’re getting back to that sweet spot of 1.5 to 2.4 per cent.
“Not only that, by mid year 2024 . . . we are expecting some price wars. Your feed costs are going down, right? It’s impacting processing and processors. There’s a big spike between processing and retail right now, and it’s going to escalate all this little while. But at the end of the day, what’s at stake is consumer loyalty,” he said.
Canadian consumers have become bargain hunters, forcing retailers to consider offering better enticements including loss leaders, rebates and generous loyalty programs.
“Now, what happens with meat economics? The bad news is that we are expecting the meat counter to get more expensive this year. Actually, there are three categories where we expect a higher-than-average increase. That would be vegetables, bakery and meat.”
The message pork producers need to convey is that their protein is incredibly affordable and, with proper selection and preparation, can be as delicious and satisfying as other proteins.
He recalled growing up in a house where pork was unpopular because of the way it was being prepared. Helping people choose the right cuts and learn to cook them properly can resolve that issue, said Charlebois.
“Have we really done good work around valuing pork as a sustainable, affordable source of protein? I think when you look at results year after year, I’m not sure we’re doing a good job. And so people, because of price, they’re looking around and this is something that you saw in 2023.”
Pork industry leaders need to work toward capturing domestic consumption as the inflation rate begins to slow, said Charlebois.
“Once we go back to 2.5-per-cent or two-per-cent inflation, will consumers start investing again? And that’s a key question for you guys moving forward to grow your business.”
“We need to make sure that people understand that our protein, including pork, is affordable. There is the economy, there’s inflation, interest rates. Canada has the second lowest food inflation rate amongst G7 countries, including the EU. The lowest is in (the US), and it’s still the lowest as of this morning.”
Charlebois put up a chart showing that Canadian consumers are spending a relatively small portion of their budgets on food, indicating that they are not willing to invest in food at the peril of other purchases, such as vacations and TVs.
“So we kind of have to educate people that way and make pork really a fun-loving option at the grocery store and cut through the noise created by inflation,” said Charlebois.
Hot on his heels, Saskatchewan’s Marty Seymour, CEO of Carbon RX, walked delegates through the potentials and pitfalls of trading in carbon credits.
Agriculture really needs to be more proactive in setting the stage and being recognized for its contributions to sequestering carbon dioxide, including opportunities to sell carbon credits on the voluntary market, said Seymour. He described a complex minefield in which trading opportunities exist but can be difficult to define and can also lose value over time.
The 2024 edition of Banff Pork Seminar closed with a presentation on crisis leadership by Winnipeg firefighter-paramedic Jason Shaw, Deputy Chief of Emergency Management and Public Information with the Winnipeg Fire Paramedic Service.
A graduate of Harvard University’s National Preparedness Initiative and incident commander for some of Manitoba’s most devastating emergencies, including recent wildfires, Shaw has made presentations across the continent. He speaks of the compassion, executive intelligence and accountability necessary to lead people effectively during a crisis.
“I am not a subject matter expert in your field. I do not know very much about the pork industry at all, but the limited research that I have done tells me that you deal with crisis all the time,” Shaw said to a crowd that had thinned considerably as people rushed home ahead of what was going to be a very cold night.
“There’s a billion-dollar industry talking about crisis leadership and leadership. The reality here is there’s not really much difference between leadership and crisis leadership. Crisis leadership is literally the exact same thing, except the speed and onset of the consequences are very different and can really, really hurt you,” he said.
He offered five laws of leadership that he considers essential for one who must guide others through a crisis.
- We lead people and we manage things.
- This is about you, your emotional IQ and your ability to check your ego.
- Culture. This is probably the hardest one for people to get wrapped around in their head and it’s a difficult one because leaders are asked to take the blame for everything.
- Communicate effectively. Be proactive and increase your transparency. If your people know where you’re going and you’re leading effectively, they’re generally going to make the same decisions that you would because you’ve all trained together.
— continued on page 10
— continued from page 9 - Always grow. Refill that bucket and commit to constant learning.
“These five things are going to make you better emotional leaders: Your self-awareness, your self regulation, your own motivation, empathy and your social skills. If you can do those things, folks, you’re going to be a better emotional and intellectual human being. You’re going to help you . . . and you’re going to be able to lead more effectively,” said Shaw.
In closing the conference, Zijlstra acknowledged the people and organizations who have contributed to the seminar’s success.
The 2024 edition of Banff Pork Seminar was supported by 66 sponsors who contributed a total of $167,000. Their contribution was worth about $220 per registered delegate, said Zijlstra.
He acknowledged the hard work of conference co-ordinator Ashley Steeple and her team as well as the members of the advisory committee, encouraging anyone who has an interest to step forward and replace those whose terms have expired.
He also asked for input from attendees on what worked, what didn’t work and who they would suggest as presenters for the 2025 seminar.
Banff Pork Seminar is a project of the University of Alberta, Alberta Pork and Alberta Agriculture and Forestry.
The annual seminar returns to the Fairmont Banff Springs Hotel on January 7-9, 2025. •
— By Brenda Kossowan
