Hog farmers and industry people looked at a story published by the titled, “China hog futures fall to record low on fears of pork glut.” 
The Financial Times said mass slaughtering of pigs prompted fear that the world’s second-biggest economy faces a deluge of pork. Rising concerns that the local pork market is becoming inundated have led to a more than 30 percent fall in Dalian-traded hog futures, allowing investors to bet on the future direction of prices. 
Dr. John Carr, an international livestock consultant and veterinarian said when contacted in Australia, said yes, there is too much pork but not as the Times reported.  
Yes, the price has fallen, but farmers are selling their pigs before they die, afraid they won’t get anything for them when African Swine Fever kills the pigs.   
“Once we get over the ASF panic there will be no pigs again. And the rest of Asia still in meltdown. The hog price is less than 50 per cent – its 15-17rmb falling from nearly 40rmb/kg,” said Dr. Carr.  
In Canada, the opposite is true, which is why industry price watchers should carefully assess what is going on in China.  
In the HB Hog group, including nearly 300 producers and industry reps, someone quipped – “Harry could you fly over to China and find out what this pork glut is, please?” When Dr. Carr responded, yes, the price tanked but not because there is an actual pork glut, but farmers are panic selling everything, and soon there will be no pork.  

Tyler Fulton, the Director of Risk Management with Hams Marketing Services advised Canadian pork producers to consider grain prices as they make forward contracting decisions for the fall and winter months. 
“Carcass values in the United States are bumping up against all-time highs and, since the prices the packers pay in both the United States and Canada reference those values, it’s a very profitable time for producers.” 
The prices in Canada are quite the opposite of what is happening in China.  
Fulton said prices are coming close to 300 dollars per pig and, even with exceptionally high grain prices, Canadian producers are still very profitable. 
“For producers looking to hedge some of their production, hedging at levels of close to 200 dollars per pig for the fourth quarter of this year, that’s a pretty exceptional level to be able to secure.” 
But those producers should be making those decisions in the context of their feed costs because even 200 dollars a pig doesn’t necessarily secure absolute profitability. 
There is enormous volatility in the corn and soybean markets, and that’s the main cost that hog producers have in their operations. 
“Generally speaking, we’re pretty supportive of guys securing a quarter of their production into the fall months and winter months at current prices just because it is an outlier on the normal seasonal trend.” 
Fulton said the processing plants running at a fraction of capacity one year ago are reporting steady uninterrupted processing, especially in the United States, and producers are making some of the best margins over the past eight or nine years. •
— By Harry Siemens