In a candid interview with Dr. John Carr, an international livestock consultant and veterinarian, right after Germany discovered its first wild boar infected with African Swine Fever, the Germans could be looking at flooding the European market with eight million pigs this year.
Why, because Germany is the number one producer of pork.
“But, the German market is interesting because they don’t make pigs anymore, they farm them from Spain, Holland, and Denmark,” he said. “I can’t sell them, so I am not buying them. So, this disaster is not German, but much more widespread. But the Danes, the Dutch, and the Spanish no longer have the finishing capacity to handle these animals.”
Dr. Carr said the Danes have gone into breeding like North Carolina, lots of breeding, no finishing, but the Germans finish the pigs if the Germans have just lost their number one purchaser, the market drops.
An updated article in the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) by Bethan Wilkins wrote that China, Singapore, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, Japan, South Africa have so far placed a ban on German pork imports.
Dr. Carr has instructed the British to push the sales exports. But, the British have problems because, if the price of pig meat from Denmark collapses, “The British will buy Danish bacon because we like it. So, you take out one part of this, because the price would still fall. But Canada, I would argue, is a net exporter to China. China’s going to come looking for pork. She needs six million pigs this year.”
Wilkins in the AHDB wrote pig prices in Germany fell sharply in response to the outbreak of ASF. AMI quoted the VEZG [A Professional marketing group in Germany] price as €1.27/kg or $1.98 for the week ended 23 September, the same as the previous week, but 14 per cent down on the €1.47/kg quoted for the week ended September 2.
She writes that the loss of most export markets outside of the EU presents significant challenges with carcass balance, particularly for offal products. Staffing levels also remain a difficulty in German processing plants. Low priced pork from Germany is undercutting other suppliers within Europe.
Dr. Carr said now is the time for Canada to pay some of the COVID-19 costs on the back of pigs.
“Because, if you can ship the pigs from Canada to China, you can raise the price because the customer is desperate.”
While China gets many pigs from the United States but owns most of those pigs, she buys from them.
He said there are some ifs and buts, do the math, the Chinese today are looking at a 12 per cent reduction in imports short about 6 million pigs’ worth of pork. The trouble is, the numbers are so fluid because the German exports to China have nearly doubled this year, because of African Swine Fever. The Chinese imports around the planet rose to over 100 per cent because of ASF.
Dr. Carr looks after more than 150 thousand sows in China and knows full well the task of rebuilding the Chinese breeding herd most consumed by the Chinese people during the original ASF outbreak.
“I think five years is not unreal. It could be 10; it could be 20. But, I think to give them five years. I’m going to be producing pigs in a year, at full production probably by ‘22. Then, we’ll be selling gilts to set up new farms in ‘23, ‘24, ‘25. I’ll be a player,” he said. •
— By Harry Siemens
Piglet Prices Slump
Prices for breeding (weaner) piglets in Germany have fallen sharply in past weeks following the discovery of African swine fever (ASF) in wild boar in the country, traders said recently.
“The uncertainty about the impact on pork sales, especially exports, following the discovery is making farmers very cautious about buying more pigs for breeding,” one trader said. “This will also hit farmers in countries which sell piglets to Germany for fattening, such as the Netherlands and Denmark.”
Prices in Germany were around 27 euros per breeding piglet on Monday, down from around 40 euros a piglet before the first ASF case was found in Germany on Sept. 10, German animal farming association VEZG said.
Before the coronavirus crisis in March, German prices were as high as 80 euros a piglet.
“Piglet prices are at a low level but at least are stabilizing,” another trader said. “The weak prices are especially bad news for the Dutch and Danish piglet suppliers.
Some 13 ASF cases were confirmed in wild boars in the eastern state of Brandenburg up to Friday. No farm animals have been infected.
Germany’s agriculture ministry has warned that more cases in wild boar are to be expected as the animals move around in groups and the disease is easily transferable.•
— Update Source Reuters
