Last June, China stopped purchasing Canadian pork. Up to that time in 2019, China’s pork imports from Canada were 15 per cent of total imports, Just below Spain and Germany at about 18-20 per cent each said Jim Long, a hog industry commentator.
Then more recently, much to the relief of Canadian and should be to U.S. pork producers, China agreed to begin again to import Canada Pork.
“The closure put pressure on Canada-U.S. pork prices. The issue that triggered the stoppage was false labelling by a Canadian pork exporter to China missed by the Canadian Food Inspection Agency,” said Long. “There are some political issues involved mainly due to the Huawei Executive that Canada holds for possible extradition to the U.S.”
Dr. John Carr spoke recently to hog producers and industry representatives at the h@ms Marketing producer meetings, in Starbuck, MB, Swift Current, SK, and Red Deer, AB and had some observations on the African Swine Fever situation.
“We have a responsibility to help feed the nation. We need to make sure that our production is at 105 per cent. Don’t be too greedy, but make sure that you are producing the number of pigs you’re supposed to produce,” said Dr. Carr. “So you need to get your pig flow right, and you’ve got to get that barn full. So make sure you feed enough sows, farrow enough sows, and fill the barn that would be number one.”
He said the price of pigs would go up and strongly encourages that producers put some of that money into biosecurity.
“I would like to see a fence around every farm that is pig-proof or kid-proof at least if nothing else. I mean, people say, well, there are no feral pigs, but there are. And while in Manitoba we are a little cold at times and the pigs will migrate up and down, then they don’t see the border, and there are not enough Americans to kill them on the other side with their guns, so we have to put up fences,” said Carr. “The farms that I look after in Russia and Ukraine, we have no day-on-day risk of African Swine Fever. I don’t lose any sleep over it because we have a fence. And we’ll have neighbours 50 meters away with ASF.”

Dr. Carr travels the world often two to three different countries in a week and maintains the Border Patrol people are the first line of defence when it comes to animal diseases.
“The world’s food safety is relying on border patrol people. Thank you guys and gals. You’re doing a great job,” he added.
Jim Long had some other observations.
“Pork leaving Canada to China takes that pork out of Canada, U.S. and Mexico markets. Less supply in the Domestic North American market will support prices in all three countries. Canada’s tariff on pork to China is 12 per cent, and currently, the U.S. pays 70 per cent,” said Long. “Some reports indicate that over the next twelve months, China’s pork production will drop by 24 million tonnes. U.S.A. – Canada – Mexico’s production in total isn’t much more than 15 million tons a year.”
He said the amount of pork Canada can send to China is much more limited by logistics than demand. China is a black hole for pork and will go and disappear. The raw economics helps the arithmetic to send pork to China.
“We have done business in China for eight years. The Chinese are natural capitalists and traders. The arithmetic of buying pork in North America is simple: Recent pork cut-outs 80 cents a pound and Chinese pork cut-outs about $3.10 a pound,” said Long. “Example: buy pork in Canada at 80 cents a pound pay 12 per cent tariff. Sell pork at $3.10 a pound that’s a spread of over $2.00 a pound to cover costs. A 200 pound carcass = $400. It doesn’t take an Ag Economist to figure out the incentive.”
For every 40,000 pounds or 400 pig shipments, the gross margin would be $80,000.
“What we calculated is probably oversimplified but make it half of what we calculate, it sure the heck beats raising hogs the last couple years,” said Long. “One of our points of this exercise is that beyond needed pork to fill the black hole created by ASF, there is a tremendous financial incentive for pork to move to China. We are not sure how fast Canada can get back to full speed shipping to China, but big incentives to get it going.” •
— By Harry Siemens