Florian Possberg, a partner with Polar Pork, said rising trade tensions and political uncertainty create serious challenges for Canadian agriculture. China announced steep new tariffs—including 100 per cent on Canadian canola oil, meal, and peas and 25 per cent on pork, fish, and seafood. At the same time, the U.S. has threatened similar measures on Canadian imports. With an election in progress, Possberg said Canada has been without a functioning parliament since before Christmas, leaving the country unprepared to respond effectively to these mounting trade threats.
He said Canada’s dependence on exports makes the new tariffs especially damaging. “China was our second-largest pork export market in 2023. Now we’re facing a 25 per cent tariff on pork going into China and another 25 per cent from the U.S.-our top two export destinations.”

Possberg called the situation devastating for pork producers and canola farmers. “China is our number one market for canola. A 100 per cent tariff is just unfathomable. We can’t compete with that.”
He said trade uncertainty is already damaging long-standing cross-border relationships between Canadian and U.S. farmers, processors, and customers. Many American operations rely on a steady supply of Canadian live pigs and pork, built over years of reliable trade, inspections, and logistics. “These tariffs are damaging that trust and expectation.” That decline affects Canadian and U.S. producers and adds even more pressure to canola growers facing steep Chinese tariffs.
Possberg said the ripple effects of trade uncertainty go far beyond farmers—they also impact consumers in Canada, the U.S., and other countries like Mexico. “We’re part of a North American market,” he explains, noting that Mexico only produces about 40 per cent of the pork it consumes, relying heavily on U.S. exports. If trade tensions trigger reciprocal tariffs, Mexico may avoid taxing U.S. pork to protect affordability for its consumers. That would leave Canada at a disadvantage, unable to step in and fill the gap. “We’d lose twice.” The result could be tighter pork supplies, higher consumer prices, and long-term instability in an already low-margin industry.
He said Canada’s political instability has made it difficult to respond to growing trade threats. “We haven’t had a functioning parliament since before Christmas,” he explains, which has limited the federal government’s ability to act, especially in response to moves from the U.S. Provinces have tried to step in, but their efforts are limited. “It’s like negotiating with U.S. governors instead of the president—it doesn’t carry the same weight.”
As the election campaign unfolded, Possberg said farmers and consumers must watch closely. “Back in February, it looked like we might get a stable Conservative majority,” he said, which gave hope for stronger trade negotiations. But now, with the April 28 election shaping up to be a close race, that stability is uncertain. If no party wins a clear mandate, the political uncertainty will continue. Possberg noted that Western farmers often feel better represented by the Conservatives, whose base is in the West. At the same time, the Liberals tend to focus more on industries in Ontario and Quebec. “This could be a tough stretch for farmers—not just in the West, but across the country.”
Possberg said food security is a growing concern, especially for large populations in Eastern Canada. In the short term, if Canadian pork loses access to the U.S. and Chinese markets, pork could be cheaper and more widely available at grocery stores. But in the long term, he warns, the impact will be severe. “Many pork producers could go bankrupt, and the industry could shrink.”
While consumers may still find pork on store shelves, losing producers would threaten long-term food security, something many have taken for granted until now. •
— By Harry Siemens