Dr. Sylvain Charlebois had fresh perspective to share when he spoke at the Saskatchewan Pork Industry Symposium on Nov. 6, the day after Donald Trump was elected.
Right off the top, he asked if business will get better with this guy? This guy being Trump, whose photo was being shown on the two large screens in the conference room.
“Do you guys think it is good news or bad news for the industry?”
When there was no audible reply from the audience, he answered the question.
“It’s bad news … but I am going to try to convince you that it is good news. I know that 80 per cent of Canadians wanted Harris to win, but I don’t care about that. I look at policy; I look at data; I look at evidence; I looked at the first Trump administration between 2016 and 2020, and Canada did OK.”
Charlebois said he wanted to reflect on what happened in the US election “and what we should expect from Trump 2.0.”
“Frankly, the one thing I think we have heard a lot about Trump is unfair.”
Charlebois, who taught at the University of Regina for seven years and is currently at Dalhousie University, said Trump is “unpredictable, he says all sorts of things, (and) we don’t really know where he is going to go.
“I think Trump’s style is unpredictable but on policy, he is pretty darn predictable. Everything he says he is going to do in the first term, he did. And my guess for the second term is he will continue to do that.”
Charlebois pivoted to the carbon tax and the damage its doing to Canada. On April 1, 2025, the carbon tax will go up to $95 per pound.
“This is something I have said to parliamentarians over and over and over again: stop looking at retail; look at the supply chain. If you look at wholesale prices — Canadian wholesale prices compared to American wholesale prices — our wholesale prices have gone up 40 per cent more than in America in the last four years.”

He said that means the carbon tax has made our food sector less competitive.
“So if you are Loblaw or Sobey’s or Metro, what are you going to do? You are going to look for cheap, affordable food, especially when cost of living is a problem for your customers. You are going to go south and that is my biggest concern.”
Charlebois also took a run at Bill C-282.
Charlebois said with Trump’s decisive mandate, “America knows where it needs to go. My question is does Canada know where it needs to go? Right now, I am concerned about what I am seeing in Ottawa.
“(The United States election) was good for you, the pork industry in Canada,” Charlebois reiterated after discussing Bill C-282, which, he said, will no longer be relevant with Trump returning to the White House.
The bill would prohibit Canadian trade negotiators from making future concessions opening up protected dairy, egg and poultry markets. With Trump coming back, there would be a risk of a trade war.
“You will have a president that cares more about economic growth and the agriculture sector in Canada than our own prime minister.
“At least (Trump) is trying. He wants to make farming in America more efficient; he wants to keep energy costs down. He is doing all the things I think we have to see in Canada.”
Charlebois turned his attention to the consumer. He said there is less traffic at meat counters because people are struggling financially.
“The meat counter is a scary place for consumers on a tight budget. That is why consumption is down.”
He said his forecast is not great for consumers. He said he can see food prices going up by as much as five per cent in 2025.
He said prices will be driven by meat – up five to seven per cent.
“Beef will be the culprit. The herd size in Canada is the same as 1987. We had 26 million Canadians in 1987.”
He said the herd size for beef in the United States is at the same level as in 1951.
“Are people going to build up the herd again? That is the million-dollar question. Until then, we are expecting prices to continue to climb and we believe beef will slowly price itself out of the market.”
He said if consumers don’t buy beef, they will look to chicken and pork.
“The conversion from beef to chicken has always been quite high, but that’s changing. You guys are becoming sexy. Let’s make pork great again.
“Yes, sales are down but if you are moving away from beef, pork is slowly becoming an interesting option and that’s going to continue through 2025.”
He said a lot of Canadians aren’t going to a grocery store to buy meat anymore. He said places like Giant Tiger, and independents are getting a bigger share of the market.
“The CEO of Loblaw was on my podcast and said meat sales are sluggish. People are going elsewhere, and you see it.”
Charlebois put a graphic on the screen showing food spending per month.
Charlebois said Canadians are currently spending $316 a month on food at the grocery store. At restaurants, each month, Canadians are spending $186.95.
“Retail is at one of its lowest points in seven years. But food service, the $186, is at a historic high. So, you think people aren’t spending it on food, so why are they spending it at a restaurant? You can order a lot of stuff through apps,” he said. It has become convenient.
He closed his presentation by saying pork has a positive future.
“Despite all the challenges, it is never a guarantee, but right now, I truly think the world needs more pork because there is no other way, other than eggs perhaps, to efficiently produce animal proteins to offer to the rest of the world.” •
— By Cam Hutchinson