Kevin Grier, a speaker at the Saskatchewan Pork Industry Symposium, says 2025 should be a good year for producers.
Grier, an Ontario-based marketing analysis and consultant, spent a good portion of his presentation on Nov. 6 talking about the demand for pork and the importance demand has in forecasting.
“I want to give you a big picture. To do that, let’s look at the United States. In times when prices were high, Americans ate less meat and when prices were low they ate more meat.”
He said that is common sense. What isn’t common sense was the significant change that took place from 2015 and into the 2020s, when Americans were eating more and more meat at higher and higher prices.
“That happens normally when people have a change in their tastes, if they have more income – that was good news. This has been a phenomenal period of demand and growth in terms of the big picture. It has been great for this industry.”
What about Canada?
“In 2005 to 2014, you can see once again the higher the price, the less we ate, and the lower the price, the more we ate.”
From 2016 through 2022, the demand for pork boomed.
“In more recent years, Canadian meat demand has been is the strongest it has been in many years, probably forever.”
In the last two years, the demand for pork dipped.
“The demand for pork in Canada is just so so; just kind of there . . . not particularly impressive or exciting. In some respects you can say it’s like America’s. In 2023-24, there demand fell back to a norm as well. I am a little bit concerned about the demand.”
His concern was tempered by his prediction of what’s to come.
“Last year at this time, or January of this year, I said in 2024, we were going to have an average lean hog index price of $82. I was going to be pretty darn close, but all of a sudden it caught fire — $84, $85 by the time it is all said and done.”
“What we care most about is the pig crop, and the pig crop in the United States increased about three per cent in the start of 2024, despite the decline in the breeding herd. American productivity was through the roof such that I had to double check to see if the data was right.”

After the pig crop declined in the third quarter of this year, it is once again growing.
“So, what is coming at us in terms of the kill? In the third quarter, which we just got through, we increased the kill by 2.5, three per cent which was pretty impressive.
“Based on a Hogs and Pigs report, the pig crop in this quarter should see a one per cent increase in the kill.
But everybody is pretty excited now because the slaughter in the last couple of weeks has been nowhere near one per cent which might be why the prices are so firm.”
He said in the first quarter of next year, “we are probably going to have a decrease in kill, and based on producer intentions and the potential crop, we might have 1.5 per cent in the second and third quarters.
“I think 2025 is going to have roughly the same amount of pork – maybe a little bit more – as 2022, 2023, 2024, and I think prices are going to be a little bit higher.
“If we finish 2024 at about $85, we could look forward to $86, $87, assuming demand stays the same. I think what we are going to see in 2025 is one or two per cent more pork and perhaps we will see a two or three per cent increase in price, subject again to demand.
“I think there is reason to be more optimistic about demand because beef is not going to grow – it’s going to get less into 2025 and 2026 unless they start retaining heifers.
“If I am wrong about my forecast for $86 or $87, I hope to be wrong on the downside.”
In addition to his forecast, Grier discussed Canada’s spot in the global market.
“We are a global production leader. China is No. 1 by a long shot in terms of a producer. Canada is the sixth or seventh largest producer in the world of pork. And the fourth largest exporter. “So that old expression that we punch above our weight kind of fits when it comes to Canada in the global market.”
He said there was a time when he worried about Canada holding its No. 4 position.

“If I was giving this presentation in 2019, I would be nervous because we are losing global export share. But in 2019 to 2024, we have started to gain back share of global exports.”
He said in the case of the global market, size doesn’t matter.
“Like all smaller players, we tend to focus on quality. When a Canadian sells to Japan, the Japanese know they get what they ask for.
“With Americans, you are going to get what the plant produces. We have an advantage that way through our specs in terms of our service which is classic Business 101. Small companies compete with service; large companies compete on costs.” •
— By Cam Hutchinson