Jürgen E. Kramer put the odds of North America having an African Swine Fever outbreak at 50-50 — at best. 
Kramer did admit during his speaking session at the 2022 Saskatchewan Pork Industry Symposium that his crystal ball is not always crystal clear. 
He was emphatic in saying Canada needs to have a plan prepared for the eventuality of ASF striking. Once you are in, it’s hard to get out, said Kramer, who has worked for Genus PIC for 35 years, with both regional and global responsibilities. 
“Africa Swine Fever over the last seven to eight years has definitely spread around Europe. If we turn back the clock some five years, somewhere around 26 per cent of the sow inventory in Europe was located in ASF-positive countries. Five and a half years later, it is somewhere around 43 per cent; I would call that a significant increase. 
“What is interesting also, is if we look at the global scale, somewhere around 65 to 70 per cent of the global sow inventory is located in ASF-positive countries.” 
He moved away from his discussion of ASF to talk about the affects COVID-19 has had on the industry in Europe. 
“Suddenly, we woke up and China had changed its view, inventory rebuilding and so on. The number of European packers who lost their licenses, officially because of COVID-19, was mind bending, so the export volume in 2021 decreased by two per cent. This year the projection is there will be a decrease by a staggering 16 per cent, and the projection for next year is it will go down by 42.5 per cent.” 
Kramer said Europe controls about 18.5 million sows, which is somewhere around 24 per cent of the global sow inventory. He said the number has been going down for 16 years, with the number of slaughter pigs moving up slightly. 
“In a nutshell, we do more with less, and I assume that is the same picture here in Canada as well.” 
He estimates sow inventory will have decreased by at least 500,000 in 2022, and by 2.5 million between 2021 and 2030. 
“That is partially driven by the productivity gain, again doing more with less. The last 16 years, Europe increased by an average of plus 0.42. There is no reason why that should go backwards. The population in Europe will be very stable. Pork meat consumption will decrease and the slaughter weight will increase by somewhere around 250 grams per year.” 
“I could paint a doomsday scenario that the sow inventory can decrease by up to 4.6 million sows. Let’s behave as if the glass is still half full and settle on 2.5 million sows. 
“Then, on top of it, inflation rates, interest rates and labour shortages, all those things, are not just a North American or European problem. They are a global problem. I was laughing with my colleagues from China on the phone that when China complains about labour shortage, then we really have a problem. I think we can settle on that one. 
“Pork consumption is a real challenge for the European pork industry and the ASF disease challenge in Europe is real, but COVID-19 impact is so far more severe than ASF. That is mainly driven by the challenges of the slaughter plant industry because of the revelation on the labour side on the whole revamping.” 
On the ASF side, Kramer said it started to take hold during the past seven-to-eight years, with outbreaks increasing very significantly. The majority of those are wild boar outbreaks. The number of domestic outbreaks has also increased in Eastern Europe. Kramer cited Bulgaria, Romania and Poland as being hit the hardest. 
On a positive note, he said countries have eradicated the ASF. He mentioned the Czech Republic and Belgium. Spain has been ASF free since the 1990s. 

“I believe if anybody wants to learn how to do it, those are the countries to ask. They had different road maps to get there, with some basics on how they achieved it.” 
He said there are risks and lessons to be learned. Kramer said raising awareness at the farm level is where it starts. He said at one time, farms in Germany had fences to keep wild pigs away. 
“Then, for whatever reason, the fence got lost. Fences are a very cheap to implement. It is a very simple thing and it doesn’t take millions to build a fence. 
He said recurring testing has been beneficial in Germany. It is paid for by the state, he said. With a negative test in a restricted zone, pigs can be taken to a slaughter plant. 
Kramer said transporting pigs between countries is risky. He said it often involves a feeder pig being taken hundreds of miles to a third party for finishing. 
Denmark exports 30-40 million feeder pigs a year, and before any truck goes back to Denmark, it needs to be washed and there is one central station. Every truck, without asking, will get an additional washing of the truck and will be disinfected. It is mandatory, and you will not think about it when driving into Denmark with your truck. 
“Denmark took pretty hard protocols. The pork industry is approximately 10 per cent of the GDP of Denmark, so it is a very substantial business.” 
Denmark, over the last five to 10 years, has eliminated its entire wild boar population. 
“I am not here to judge. That is the benchmark Denmark established for itself to protect its pig industry.” 
He said hunters are difficult to find, especially young ones, and workers on farms have to be reminded repeatedly not to hunt wild boars. 
Kramer reiterated that ASF is only part of the problem producers are facing. 
“Where there is something negative; there is something positive. There is no doubt the landscape in Europe of the pig industry changed very significantly, but so far only to a minor degree because of ASF. It was really the sum of other things.” •
— By Cam Hutchinson