Like somebody wanting to get something off their chest, Kevin Grier admitted at the beginning of his presentation at Saskatchewan Pork Symposium 2021 that he missed the mark badly on his prediction for lean hog prices in 2021. 
Grier, a marketing analyst from Guelph Ont., forecast the price would be $71, while in actuality it has been in the $90 and $95 ballpark as the year moves toward to the end. 
Being wrong is good when the price is higher than forecasted, he told those watching and listening to his Zoom presentation. 
“I always like to give myself a grade, and if I give myself a grade on this one, it would have to give myself an F in terms of how good my forecast was last year at forecasting the U.S. hog market.” 
He said he has taken a step back to see why he was wrong and why “the price was so fantastic” in 2021, and where he sees it going in 2022. 
“Something really positive is happening with the demand index for pork. It shows you in 2021, the U.S. demand index for pork was the highest on record. 
“I underestimated the power of demand. In particular, the power of domestic demand.” 
Where is the market going in 2022? 
Grier said it will be about $85. 
“I am still saying demand is going to be very good, but not as good as what I saw in 2021.” 
He then turned his attention to a snapshot of what is happening in Canada. 
“We are a pretty unique country. We export more than we consume, which is pretty interesting.” 
He said Canada has exported more than 60 per cent of production over the past few years. 

Grier said in 2021 there was a decrease in the Canadian slaughter, although Western Canada saw an increase. 
Nationwide, there has been a difficulty in finding workers. It is having a huge impact on the industry. 
He cited Olymel in Red Deer as an example. He said the plant was slaughtering 10,000 hogs a day, but is now planning to go from two shifts to one. 
“That’s a sad thing, and again it is all because of a lack of labour.” 
Olymel recently announced it is closing its Princeville plant in Quebec. 
Grier said the primary reason Olymel is reducing its slaughter by 25,000 head per week in the East is the labour shortage. 
“What Olymel announced recently is the biggest announcement in the pork industry in five years. Astounding. There is hardly an issue I can think of that is bigger than labour.” 
The labour shortage in the East has led to a backlog of about 150,000 head. It has led to hogs being shipped to Western plants, where capacity is available. 
Grier then turned his presentation to Canada’s position in the world. Canada is the sixth or seventh largest pork producer on the planet depending on the day. 
He said in terms of exports “we punch above our weight,” pointing out Canada is the third top exporter in the world, behind the European Union and the United States. 
Grier showed a graphic of Canada’s share of global imports. In 2020, Canada’s share of global imports was 14 per cent, down from slightly more than 18 per cent eight years ago. He said that is not a major concern. 
He said if you measure imports against production, Canada has typically had 20 to 25 per cent over the years. 
“In 2020, we imported about 30 per cent. So, that might be something to be a little concerned about. I don’t think we should be too concerned. When all is said and done, the reason we imported so much in 2020 and 2021 is because we exported so much. 
“Even though we have lost some share of the global import market, it wasn’t due to lack of trying. We have been exporting a lot of pork in 2020 and 2021.” 
When it came to competing, Grier drew on a phrase from the 1990s: “Competitiveness is the ability to profitably gain or maintain market share.” 
He said Canada is one of the most cost competitive countries in the world. 
“As much as we can be concerned about cost of production, and rightfully so . . . compared to the rest of the world, Canada is by far and away one of the lowest cost regions in the world, if not the lowest.” 
He did point out that the cost of pork packing plants is higher in Canada than in the U.S. 
“That’s mainly because they have bigger plants. They also get more value from their inedible by-products, which is important. 
He said Americans are about $5 a head more efficient. He said for Canada to compete, it goes back to getting value out of the cut. 
“Large companies compete on cost leadership. Smaller companies tend to differentiate themselves or add value. This is basic Business 101. 
“We cannot compete with the Americans on cost, so we can compete in other areas: adding value, service, those kinds of things. 
“With the Americans you get what you get. Chances are with Canada that you are going to get what you want. We tend to add more value and tend to be more service oriented.” 
He stressed that Canada is holding its own in terms of exports. 
“We are one of the most competitive countries in the world in terms of cost of production. Our packers complete globally by adding value. 
“Is Canada competitive? I think the answer is yes. Does it mean we are on easy street? No. It is difficult and there are some warning flags, but based on the definition, Canada is a major global player.”•
— By Cam Hutchinson