Jean-Michel Laurin, the Vice President Policy and Public Affairs with NATIONAL Public Relations said despite continuing uncertainty over trade; the pending USMCA has renewed Canada’s optimism on the trade front.
USMCA, CPTPP and the like: deciphering the alphabet soup of trade agreements was discussed earlier this week as part of the LSC.
Laurin, speaking at the 2019 London Swine Conference recently said despite the uncertainty surrounding the USMCA, there is a renewed sense of security in Canada.
“In Canada the uncertainty around NAFTA, would it be repealed, was it going to be the result of disputes between the American administration and Congress, we had no idea what was going to happen, but President Trump thought it was a terrible agreement for his country wanted it renegotiated,” he said. “At least now that cloud of uncertainty is no longer there.
We know what the USMCA would replace NAFTA, and we know what’s in that agreement, we think it would be good for Canada. There are some outstanding elements in there.”
Laurin said the question now is what’s going to happen, is it just a piece of paper, will it become a law, ratified, and implemented, and see the benefits of that – that’s not clear. It’s mired in U.S. politics.
“Some legislators in the U.S. don’t want to give an inch to President Trump, and some are asking for the steel and aluminum tariffs lifted,” he said. “Canada is asking for those tariffs lifted before we implement the agreement but there’s a roadmap, there’s a pathway to the agreement being in force and implemented. We don’t know how long it’s going to take, but there’s a likelihood it will come into effect, and the question is more when than if.”
Laurin acknowledged a lot of the changes in Canada’s global trade position, such as its deteriorating relations with China, are the result of Canada reacting to what’s happening in the United States but he suggests trade agreements such as the CPTPP have helped enhance Canada’s position with regards to trade.
“Dealing with so much uncertainty with such a large trading partner with whom we have a high level of economic integration was bad, and business hates uncertainty,” said Laurin. “Companies, when they’re looking to invest they, want to know there’s going to be a market for their product, so I think that now we’ve got the three governments agreeing on an improved NAFTA, called the USMCA, removes that big element of uncertainty – to me that’s the key take away from this new agreement now.”
He said looking at the actual content, it could lead to some positive outcomes for the Canadian pork industry. The agreement opens up the potential for the three governments to cooperate further on regulatory issues, on the management of diseases for instance, on addressing disputes, addressing potential trade distortions.
“Again the agreement sets the process through which this type of collaboration could take place in the future,” said Laurin. “If it does anything, I think it would have a positive impact just because it would lead the three governments to work together more closely on some of the common challenges that the pork industry is facing in Canada, the U.S. and Mexico.” •
— By Harry Siemens